Three local races to keep an eye on as the country waits for results of the 2024 Presidential Election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
1. Campaign contributions have exceeded $100k in Routt County's District 1 Commissioner race. How will it end up?
Routt County Commissioner – District One - Brent Romick(R) vs. Angelica Salinas (D)
The race for the District One seat on the Routt County Board of Commissioners is the race I will be watching closest on Tuesday night for a few different reasons. The seat is being vacated by retiring Routt County Commissioner Tim Corrigan, so neither candidate has an incumbency advantage. Neither candidate has held previous elected office before either.
The last election for District One Commissioner in 2020 saw the Democrat Corrigan run unopposed, so nothing really to glean there. In 2016, Corrigan won reelection by 8 points. But all of Routt County votes for Routt County Commissioner regardless of the district, so looking at 2022 results also seems valid. Two years ago, District Three Commissioner Sonja Macys, a Democrat, was elected by a margin of 15 points.
The other wrinkle in this race is the amount of money that has been raised by candidates, potentially the most ever in a Routt County Commissioner election. Romick leads the way with more than $61,000 as of the Nov. 1 report compared to Salinas with more than $45,500.
This race has interested me since the candidates were announced and I am curious to see what results show later tonight. Will the seemingly Democratic lean of Routt County help Salinas bring her vision for to the Commissioner’s Office or is Romick — who has broad name recognition and a long tenure in the valley — the candidate that can put a Republican in the commissioner’s office for the first time since 2019?
Read more about this race here:
District 1 Routt Commissioner candidates talk Stagecoach, housing, recreation in Bugle questionnaire – Oct. 18
South Routt Commissioner candidates emphasize process in answer about looming Stagecoach development – Oct. 11
Also: I am of course watching the District Two commissioner race as well between Commissioner Tim Redmond (D) and Tracy Lawton (R). Read more about that race here:
West Routt Commissioner candidates talk housing, property taxes at Steamboat Pilot candidate forum – Oct. 11
2. How competitive is Colorado House District 26?
Colorado House District 26 - Meghan Lukens (D) vs. Nathan Butler (R)
Following the non-partisan redistricting process, Colorado House District 26 was thought of as one of the most competitive in the state on paper. Non-partisan legislative staff estimated the newly drawn district to have a slight, 2.7 point, lean toward Democrats. This is based on election results from eight statewide races from 2018 and 2020.
In 2022 the HD26 contest saw so-called soft-money groups wade into the race on both sides in addition to funding in candidate coffers. Ultimately, Lukens won two years ago by 7.2 percentage points.
This time around has also seen a flood out outside groups spending money on this race, but this support has come almost exclusively for Lukens. The group Colorado Way Forward has reported spending nearing $230,000 to support Lukens or opposing Butler. The group Prosperity Through Property Rights has spent almost another $65,000 supporting Lukens, while Coloradans for Housing has added just over $17,000 of their own spending.
Lukens has also been listed as one of several candidates receiving support from Coloradans Creating Opportunity (total $18,700 for all candidates), Healthier Colorado ($7,357) and Voces Unidas Victory Fund ($59,000).
Butler on the other hand has seen just the NRA Political Victory Fund spend money to support him, with them spending almost $1,300 in direct support of Butler and another $5,400 supporting Butler and 13 other candidates.
The money in campaign accounts is disparate as well. Lukens has raised more than 10 times that of Butler with more than $180,000 in contributions, while Butler has reported contributions totaling just under $18,300.
In this race I am interested to see how it compares to 2022. Will Butler show that this still is a very competitive district as believed when it was created or will Lukens see similar results as two years ago? I am also interested to see if the one-sided spending helps Lukens increase her advantage or if it doesn’t change much at all.
Read more about this race:
3. Prop 131 is opposed by both Colorado’s state political parties. It’s divided the state’s U.S. Senators. Will voters overhaul the state’s elections?
Proposition 131 is the last question on the local Routt County Ballot and, if approved, would make significant changes to how candidates in many state races would get on the ballot. Rather than the typical party primary process, all candidates regardless of party would be considered together in a primary.
The top four vote getters from that would advance to a General Election that would use rank choice voting. Rank choice voting is already used in some municipalities in Colorado. Proposition 131 would extend that to races for executive offices like governor, attorney general, secretary of state, state treasurer, the state board of education and the University of Colorado board of regents. It would also affect races for congress and the Colorado legislature. Local level races, like for county commissioner, would not change under 131.
The Colorado Sun reports that efforts to pass the measure is being funded in part by Kent Thirty, a former CEO of Denver-based DaVita dialysis. Other big donors include names like Ben Walton, the grandson of Walmart Founder Sam Walton, Kathryn Murdoch, the daughter-in-law of Rupert Murdoch, and Reed Hastings, a cofounder of Netflix, among others.
Interestingly, the measure is opposed by both state political parties, but supported by Gov. Jared Polis. The measure has also divided Colorado’s Senators, with U.S Sen. John Hickenlooper lobbying for ‘yes,’ while his fellow Democrat, Sen. Michael Bennet, pushes for voters to say ‘no.’
I have really no idea what to expect here and am curious to see what Colorado voters will choose.
Read more about this race:
A donation from Chevron raises questions about corporate support for election reform in Colorado – CPR – Nov. 1
Why did Colorado progressives turn against a ballot measure for ranked-choice voting? – KUNC – Nov. 2
Proposition 131: Colorado would move to all-candidate primaries followed by ranked choice general elections – Colorado Sun – Oct. 2
Colorado’s all-candidate primary and ranked choice general election ballot measure is poised to pass, poll shows – Colorado Sun – Sept. 20